Africa's mobile economy will reach $290 billion by 2030, but nearly 1 billion people remain offline — the challenge of transitioning from coverage to usage

What Happened

The GSMA's "Mobile Economy in Africa" report, released in 2026, shows that mobile technology and related services contributed $240 billion to Africa's economy in 2025, equivalent to 7.8% of the region's GDP. The industry also supported 13 million jobs and generated $45 billion in public fiscal revenue. By 2030, the mobile economy's contribution to Africa's GDP is expected to reach $290 billion.

However, the report reveals a stark contrast: mobile broadband networks cover 91% of Africa's population, but nearly 1 billion people who live within coverage areas still do not use mobile internet. This "usage gap," rather than a "coverage gap," has become a core challenge for Africa's digital development.

The Logic Behind This Event

Over the past decade, African telecom operators have invested heavily in base stations, fiber optics, and broadband networks, rapidly increasing network coverage. Today, physical coverage is no longer the main barrier. GSMA points out that smartphone prices beyond the affordability of low-income households, still relatively high data tariffs, lack of digital skills, cybersecurity risks, and socio-cultural barriers are the underlying reasons preventing people from accessing the internet.

Operators are shifting strategies: over three-quarters of surveyed operators have prioritized expanding digital services, deploying artificial intelligence, and opening network capabilities to third parties. This shift reflects slowing growth in traditional voice and data revenues, requiring operators to find new growth areas in digital finance, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and more.

Significance for Local Development

• The multi-dimensional impact of the mobile economy on Africa's development is already evident:
• Employment: 13 million direct and indirect jobs, covering telecommunications, fintech, content services, etc.
• Fiscal Revenue: $45 billion in taxes and spectrum fees, providing funds for public services.
• Financial Inclusion: Africa remains the world's largest mobile money market, with mobile payments offering basic financial services to the unbanked population.
• Digital Services: Mobile technology is supporting telemedicine, online education, agricultural information services, and e-government, improving access to public services.

If the usage gap is effectively narrowed, more people integrated into the digital ecosystem will further drive productivity gains, consumption growth, and poverty reduction.

Impact on Regional Development

As a global leader in mobile money, Africa's level of digital connectivity directly affects regional economic integration and competitiveness. Internet access in border areas helps facilitate cross-border trade and payment efficiency; meanwhile, the digital skills gap may widen development imbalances between countries. Digital trade rules and regional data flows under the AfCFTA framework also require broader user participation to be effective.

Additionally, continued investment in 4G/5G networks and fiber optics (expected to exceed $76 billion from 2025 to 2030) will enhance Africa's position in the global digital infrastructure landscape, attracting more international capital to digital services, data centers, and smart city projects.## Potential Impact over the Next 5 to 15 Years

In the next decade, the direction of Africa's digital economy will depend on effectively bridging the usage gap. If smartphone costs decrease, digital education becomes widespread, and data tariffs are further reduced, hundreds of millions of new internet users could create one of the world's largest new digital consumption markets.

• Industrial Landscape: Operators shift from pipeline providers to platform digital partners, and AI, IoT, and cloud computing will drive upgrades in traditional agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics.
• Economic Growth: Each new internet user can potentially contribute to GDP growth through e-commerce, financial services, and content creation. GSMA expects mobile economy contribution to rise from $240 billion to $290 billion; if the usage gap is fully narrowed, the actual figure could be higher.
• New Growth Poles: Countries with high youth populations and accelerating urbanization (such as Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia) are expected to become testing grounds for digital innovation, forming new growth poles driven by digital services.
• Investment Flows: International investors will continue to focus on fintech, digital infrastructure, and AI startups; if governments introduce policies such as reducing digital taxes and subsidizing smart devices, capital inflows can accelerate.

Conclusion: Key Nodes in the Long-term Development Path

The core message revealed by the GSMA report is not the prosperity of the digital economy, but that Africa's digital transformation is entering a qualitative change phase: from "building networks" to "promoting usage". This shift marks a major adjustment in Africa's long-term development path—future growth no longer relies solely on the physical expansion of infrastructure, but requires stronger policy coordination, market innovation, and social inclusion.

Whether the 1 billion "potential users" can be converted into active internet participants in the next decade may well become the key node in determining whether Africa can seize its demographic dividend and achieve inclusive digital growth.